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July 11, 2014
Employment Among New Chemistry PhDs
Another dose of reality for the "Terrible STEM Shortage!" folks, courtesy of Slate. Here's what author Jordan Weissmann has to say:
With a little cleaning up, however, the federal data do tell a pretty clear story: The market for new Ph.D.s in the much obsessed-about STEM fields—science, technology, engineering, and math—is stagnant. Over the last 20 years, employment rates are either flat or down in each major discipline, from computer science to chemistry. It’s not what you’d expect given the way companies like Microsoft talk about talent shortages.
Why no, it isn't, is it? There seems to be something a bit off. Weissmann is working with data from the
NIH NSF and their surveys of new doctorates in the sciences, and it shows several things. For one, the post-doc populations remain very high in every field, which isn't a good sign. The number of new doctorates who report being employed has not attained the levels seen in the late 1990s, for any field. And here's chemistry in particular:
Not a very pretty picture, to be sure. It's true that the number of postdocs have been declining the last few years, but the slack seems to be picked up, more or less equally, by people who are getting jobs and people falling into the flat-out unemployed category. And remember, this is a snapshot of new doctorates, so the numbers for more experienced people are going to be different (but ugly in their own way, to judge from the waves of layoffs over the last few years). It's notable that the new chemistry doctorate holders who are unemployed have outnumbered the ones with non-postdoc jobs for the last few years, which may well be unprecedented.
Weissmann's figures for computer science doctorate and engineers are telling, too, and I refer you to the article for them. Neither group has made it back to its heights back in 2000 or so, although the 2011-2012 number have picked up a bit. Whether that's a blip or a real inflection point remains to be seen. It's safe to say, though, that none of these charts support the "Just can't find anybody to hire" narrative that you hear from so many companies.
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