Over at The Atlantic, Michael Teitelbaum has another crack at demolishing the "STEM shortage" myth. Looking over actual employment data, he finds:
All have concluded that U.S. higher education produces far more science and engineering graduates annually than there are S&E job openings—the only disagreement is whether it is 100 percent or 200 percent more. Were there to be a genuine shortage at present, there would be evidence of employers raising wage offers to attract the scientists and engineers they want. But the evidence points in the other direction: Most studies report that real wages in many—but not all—science and engineering occupations have been flat or slow-growing, and unemployment as high or higher than in many comparably-skilled occupations.
Right on all counts. I have taken many, many cracks at this subject myself. Heck, I've even said so in pieces at The Atlantic's own web site. But the "critical shortage of scientists and engineers" idea just refuses to go back into its hole, no matter how many times it's hit on the head. In this article, Teitelbaum doesn't go into the reasons for this, but he's been clear about it in recent appearances:
So from where does the STEM hype stem? According to Teitelbaum — who has written a book on the subject, due out in March, titled “Falling Behind?: Boom, Bust and the Global Race for Scientific Talent” — some of it comes from the country’s longtime cycle of waxing and waning interest in science; attention seems to focus on science every 10 to 15 years before slacking off.
The only forces pushing the idea of STEM doom, he said, are those that have something to gain from it. Mostly those are STEM employers — the tech industry, for example — that want to pack the labor force with people to suppress wages, he said, as well as lobby for looser immigration laws so that they can bring in less expensive overseas workers. Joining the chorus are universities that want more funding for science programs, as well as immigration lawyers who see the potential for handling large numbers of work visas.
Those are, I'm sad to say, pretty much the same conclusions I've come to. I don't like sounding like a 1920s IWW organizer or something - it goes very much against my usual tendencies. And I continue to think that unionism in the sciences would be a bad idea. But drumming up cheap labor by pretending that there's a shortage of it is a bad idea, too.
As mentioned above, Teitelbaum has a book out on this subject - here it is. Next time you run across someone going on about scientist shortages, hit them over the head with it.