Bernard Munos (ex-Lilly, now consulting) is out with a paper reviewing the approved drugs from 2000 to 2012. What's the current state of the industry? Is the upturn in drug approvals over the last two years real, or an artifact? And is it enough to keep things going?
Over that twelve-year span, the average drug approvals ran at 27 per year. Half of all the new drugs were in three therapeutic areas: cancer, infectious disease, and CNS. And as far as mechanisms go, there were about 190 different ones, by Munos' count. The most crowded category was (as might have been guessed) the 17 tyrosine kinase inhibitors, but 85% of the mechanisms were used by only one or two drugs, which is a long tail indeed.
Half those mechanisms were novel - that is, they were not represented by drugs approved before 2000. Coming up behind these first-in-class mechanisms were 29 follow-on drugs during this period, with an average gap of just under three years between the first and second drugs. What that tells you is that the follower programs were started at either about the same time as the first-in-class compounds (and had a slightly longer path through development), or were started at the first opportunity once the other program or mechanism became known. This means that they were started on very nearly the same risk basis as the original program: a three-year gap is not enough to validate much for a new mechanism, other than the fact that another organization thinks that it's worth working on, too. (Don't laugh at that one - there are research department that seem to live only for this validation, and regard their own first-in-class ideas with fear and suspicion).
Overall, though, Munos says that that fast-follower approach doesn't seem to be very effective, or not any more, given that few targets seem to be yielding more than one or two drugs. And as just mentioned, the narrow gap between first and second drugs also suggests that the risk-lowering effect of this strategy isn't very impressive, either.
Here's another interesting/worrisome point:
The long tail (of the mode-of-action curve). . . suggests that pharmaceutical innovation is a by-product of exploration, and not the result of pursuing a limited set of mechanisms, reflecting, for instance, a company’s marketing priorities. Put differently, there does not seem to be enough mechanisms able to yield multiple drugs, to support an industry. . .The last couple of years have seen an encouraging rise in new drug approvals, including many based on novel modes of action. However that surge has benefited companies unequally, with the top 12 pharmaceutical companies only garnering 25 out of 68 NMEs (37%). This is not enough to secure their future.
Looking at what many (most?) of the big companies are going through right now, it's hard to argue with that point of view. The word "secure" does not appear within any short character length of "future" when you look through the prospects for Lilly, AstraZeneca, and others.
Note also that part about how what a drug R&D operation finds isn't necessarily what it was looking for. That doesn't mesh well with some models of managment:
The drug hunter’s freedom to roam, and find innovative translational opportunities wherever they may lie is an essential part of success in drug research. This may help explain the disappointing performance of the programmatic approaches to drug R&D, that have swept much of the industry in the last 15 years. It has important managerial implications because, if innovation cannot be ordained, pharmaceutical companies need an adaptive – not directive – business model.
But if innovation cannot be ordained, why does a company need lots of people in high positions to ordain it, each with his or her own weekly meeting and online presentations database for all the PowerPoint slides? It's a head-scratcher of a problem, isn't it?