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December 13, 2012
Asking the Tough Questions: Doomsday in the Clinic
Now, here's something useful for all of us in drug discovery and development: "The Mayan Doomsday’s effect on survival outcomes in clinical trials":
There is a great deal of speculation concerning the end of the world in December 2012, coinciding with the end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar (the “Maya calendar”). Such an event would undoubtedly affect population survival and, thus, survival outcomes in clinical trials. Here, we discuss how the outcomes of clinical trials may be affected by the extinction of all mankind and recommend appropriate changes to their conduct. In addition, we use computer modelling to show the effect of the apocalypse on a sample clinical trial
I especially like the comparative survival curves, with and without the destruction of all life factored in. I wonder if a Bayesian trial design would be able to handle the End of Days more gracefully?
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