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December 13, 2012
Asking the Tough Questions: Doomsday in the Clinic
Posted by Derek
Now, here's something useful for all of us in drug discovery and development: "The Mayan Doomsday’s effect on survival outcomes in clinical trials":
There is a great deal of speculation concerning the end of the world in December 2012, coinciding with the end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar (the “Maya calendar”). Such an event would undoubtedly affect population survival and, thus, survival outcomes in clinical trials. Here, we discuss how the outcomes of clinical trials may be affected by the extinction of all mankind and recommend appropriate changes to their conduct. In addition, we use computer modelling to show the effect of the apocalypse on a sample clinical trial
I especially like the comparative survival curves, with and without the destruction of all life factored in. I wonder if a Bayesian trial design would be able to handle the End of Days more gracefully?
Comments (7)
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1. PJ Hansen on December 13, 2012 3:34 PM writes...
Can't remember ever seeing a Kaplan-Meier plot with a positive slope. You might think that would be good.
Permalink to Comment2. Derek Lowe on December 13, 2012 4:50 PM writes...
Not many K-M plots allow for the possibility of zombification. Got to keep up with the times.
Permalink to Comment3. Bear on December 13, 2012 9:40 PM writes...
I really don't understand the hoopla over the Mayan Apocalypse. It's a single, isolated event with no statistical signi
Permalink to Comment4. Teddy Z on December 14, 2012 7:15 AM writes...
brilliant. But, they ignored the potential impact (pun intended) of the asteroid...
Permalink to Comment5. Ricky Connolly on December 16, 2012 1:21 PM writes...
The authors cited a Biomed Imaging article. I wonder if that will be counted as a 'real' citation.
Permalink to Comment6. Anonymous on December 17, 2012 3:02 PM writes...
I think this is worth the read just for the fact it has a subsection "Stuff we found out"
Permalink to Comment7. Xplodyncow on December 18, 2012 7:44 PM writes...
I should like to know whether the authors have any COIs to declare -- are they PIs in failing clinical trials who would benefit from world obliteration? Have they developed a doomsday survival kit and hope to profit? Are they really zombies themselves? The potential COIs alone make me question their research.
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