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November 19, 2012
The Novartis Pipeline
This would seem to be inviting the wrath of the Drug Development Gods, and man, are they a testy bunch: "Novartis could produce 14 or more new big-selling 'blockbuster' drugs within five years . . ."
I'll certainly wish them luck on that, and it certainly seems true that Novartis research has been productive. But think back - how many press releases have you seen over the years where Drug Company A predicts X number of big product launches in the next Y years? And how many of those schedules have ever quite worked out? The most egregious examples of this take the form of claiming that your new strategy/platform/native genius/good looks have now allowed you to deliver these things on some sort of regular schedule. When you hear someone talking about how even though they haven't been able to do anything like it in the past, they're going to start unleashing a great new drug product launch every year (or every 18 months, what have you) from here on out, run.
Now, Novartis isn't talking like this, and they have a much better chance of delivering on this than most, but still. Might it not be better just to creep up on people with all those great new products in hand, rather than risk disappointment?
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