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November 6, 2012
Time For An Election Post
Well, every other web site in the US will be going on about the election today, and with good reason. So I'll put up a quick post of my own, because I'll be glued to the returns tonight myself. Along the way, I've been teaching my children how to interpret them, which makes them, I'd say, among the few local middle-schoolers who know that Florida has two different poll closing time (the panhandle's on CST), to wait for Pennsylvania because Philadelphia's ballots always seem to drag in last, and that on a country-by-county basis, Ohio looks like something that Dr. Frankenstein assembled on his day off. My father was an election commissioner when I was growing up back in Arkansas, and it left a mark. I've found, though, that a background in the Arkansas politics of that era has served me well, not least in making me difficult to shock when it comes to the behavior of politicians during (and after) elections.
So what do I think is going to happen? Well, I'm used to seeing raw biological assay data, so when I see people giving probabilities of political victory with figures to the right of the decimal place, I just smile. All I'll say is that I think it's going to be a close call for whoever wins, and that anyone (on either side) who's confident it won't be needs to get out more. Were I a betting man (perish the thought), I'd put some money down on a Romney upset, because I think you could get some good odds, thanks to Nate Silver. But we'll see - tonight, or in the morning, or (God help us all) even later than that.
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