When does China take the next step in drug research? They already have a huge contract research industry, and they have branches of many of the major pharma companies. But when does a Chinese startup, doing its own research with its own people in China, develop its own international-level drug pipeline? (We'll leave aside the problem that not even all the traditional drug companies seem to be able to do that these days). It still seems clear that we're eventually going to have a Chinese Merck, or a Chinese Novartis or what have you - a company to join North America, Western Europe, and Japan in the big leagues. The Chinese government, especially, would seem to find this idea very appealing.
Opinions differ, to put it mildly, about how far away this prospect is. But Chemical and Engineering News is out with an article on homegrown Chinese research that explores just this sort of question. But you run into passages like this:
In a meeting room in a building resembling a residential home in Shanghai’s Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park, Li Chen and John Choi describe the business plan of their new company. Called Hua Medicine, the firm will launch breakthrough drugs within four years, they predict. Hua will manufacture the compounds and sell them with its own sales force. It will also license its internally developed drugs to multinational companies.
Yet right now, Hua is a modest operation that employs eight people. Hua doesn’t have an R&D lab yet, let alone a manufacturing facility. It operates in a loaned building formerly used by the administrators of the industrial park...
It can be easy to dismiss such ambitious business plans as simply talk aimed at gullible investors or government officials handing out subsidies. Except several start-ups are led by people who have long track records of success. Moreover, the money financing these start-ups comes not from relatives and friends, but from savvy investors knowledgeable about the drug industry.
Well. . .yeah. Let me join those who dismiss business plans that are as ambitious as that one. The way I understand the drug industry, if you're planning on launching a breakthrough drug within four years, you must have that drug in your hand right now, and it has to have had a lot of preclinical work done on it already (and in most therapeutic areas, it needs to have already hit the clinic). And note, these guys aren't talking about their one pet compound, they're talking about launching drugs, plural. Drugs that they discover, develop, manufacture and sell. And they have 8 people and no labs.
No, something is off here. I get the same feeling from this that I get from a lot of leapfrog-the-world plans, the feeling that something just isn't quite right and that the world doesn't allow itself to be hopped over on such a deliberate schedule. Thoughts?