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DBL%20Hendrix%20small.png College chemistry, 1983

Derek Lowe The 2002 Model

Dbl%20new%20portrait%20B%26W.png After 10 years of blogging. . .

Derek Lowe, an Arkansan by birth, got his BA from Hendrix College and his PhD in organic chemistry from Duke before spending time in Germany on a Humboldt Fellowship on his post-doc. He's worked for several major pharmaceutical companies since 1989 on drug discovery projects against schizophrenia, Alzheimer's, diabetes, osteoporosis and other diseases. To contact Derek email him directly: Twitter: Dereklowe

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In the Pipeline

« Another Cold-Weather Recipe: Chicken Pot Pie | Main | Drug Approvals 2010 »

January 3, 2011

And So, 2011

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Posted by Derek

So, let's get things underway around here: 2010 was, as has been the rule, Not A Good Year for the drug industry. But overall, I think it did break the pattern that had been going since about 2006, of each year being worse than the one before. That's just an impression, mind you, but perhaps some sort of bottom has been reached?

We'll find out. My guess is that 2011 will end up looking more like the prelude to 2012. We have a number of patent expirations coming up (with Lipitor, late this year, as the marquee event), but they'll probably affect next year's earning's more than this year. (Note that if you're a research-driven drug company, these things are bad news, but if you're a generic company (or a drug store chain), the picture is much rosier.

Predictions for this year can be entered in the comments section. Which company looks to have the best time of it, and which the worst?

Comments (9) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: Drug Industry History


1. anchor on January 3, 2011 9:57 AM writes...

Happy New Year to are my crystal ball projections for 2011 and it is not a happy one. Jobs will be short in supply for the pharmaceutical industry (people already in the job block plus more will be added to the job pool). That said, there will be token job creations in the USA. More jobs are likely to be created in China and India with the former taking lion’s share. ACS/C&E News as usual will project a very optimistic scenario for the chemists. Overall the economy of the US will be just fine (but not for pharma industry) with jobless recovery and we have a huge pit to climb. By the way, the patent expiry of Lipitor will have a dramatic impact on Pfizer not into 2012 but I say here in 2011 and soon! As for Merck...Hmm.

Permalink to Comment

2. cancer_man on January 3, 2011 10:16 AM writes...

David Sinclair says that he knows the important protein that is needed to act with resvertarol and the GSK compounds - what the Pfizer study missed.

Prediction: I think he'll be right and one of the GSK compounds will be seen as a breakthrough this year or in 2012.

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3. Biosensorist on January 3, 2011 1:36 PM writes...

@ #2 - At this point do you believe anything Sinclair says? If so I have a bridge...

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4. Ed on January 3, 2011 4:39 PM writes...

Astrazeneca look to have a tough year coming up, 3 late stage failures in December plus delay in introduction of Brilinta does not add up to a promising next few months.

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5. Eduardo on January 3, 2011 10:29 PM writes...

Lilly (my former employer) is shaping up for a nasty 2011. Top seller Zyprexa, about a quarter of sales, goes off patent in the Spring. The company has laid nothing but R&D goose eggs in recent years, so it's going to be a lean few years as they drive in slow motion off a patent cliff from 2011-2014.

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6. cancer_man on January 4, 2011 12:13 AM writes...


By coincidence, I am in the market for a bridge, preferably in the Brooklyn area.

I still can't figure out why so many here think Sinclair is a lying fraud. That's always possible, but where is the evidence for such a damning charge? His study did without information on normal mice, but that happens all the time with studies.

I guess we'll know soon enough if his necessary protein argument is correct.

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7. Another Comment on January 4, 2011 3:39 AM writes...

I suspect that Abbott will buy a few more companies. I think it has been about 5 or 6 maybe more a year for the last while... just a thought

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8. Nick K on January 5, 2011 6:16 AM writes...

How many times have we heard that the floor of the Great Pharma Recession had been reached and that the only way was up? I predict that 2011 will be no different, and that the rot will continue.

Permalink to Comment

9. Anonymous on January 9, 2011 1:33 PM writes...

I predict that Pfizer will buy some stuff.

And sack a few more......

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