Derek Lowe, an Arkansan by birth, got his BA from Hendrix College and his PhD in organic chemistry from Duke before spending time in Germany on a Humboldt Fellowship on his post-doc. He's worked for several major pharmaceutical companies since 1989 on drug discovery projects against schizophrenia, Alzheimer's, diabetes, osteoporosis and other diseases.
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Sanofi-Aventis: It's $69/Share, And That's Where It Stays
Posted by Derek
Despite a number of reports yesterday and over night that Sanofi-Aventis had raised their offer for Genzyme shares, they're saying now that they've done no such thing. It's the same $69/share offer that was made public, and they're apparently lobbying the larger Genzyme shareholders to make them see the wisdom of the offer.
So if it's not going to be a bidding war, then most of the interesting stuff is going to be taking place behind the scenes. Will some of the big investors decide that S-A's offer is better than trusting Genzyme's management? Or will hang with the current team? Or (most likely, in my opinion) will they make no commitments to anyone while they wait to see if the offer gets higher (after more pressure is applied)?
2. watcer on September 10, 2010 12:36 PM writes...
It seems there's no incentive in the market-place for S-A with no competing offers. Genzyme has yet to show they can dig themselves out of their manfacturing problems, so their self-valuation must be considered on the optimistic, high side. With today's stock market and the general stagnation of drug stock prices, appeal to general stockholders of Genzyme seems to be a good wager for S-A's price proposal. My bet is that they will go for it.
If it were such a good deal, S-A wouldn't have to twist arms to get people to sell to them - the uncertainties in Genzyme are pretty well known, and given the state of the market, people might want to get their money while they can. I would figure, thus, that S-A is twisting arms because the current deal is good for them but not obviously good for stockholders. There may also be a lot of people in Genzyme for the long haul for whom a merger will likely do them no good at all (considering the past history of mergers in pharma) who may not want to sell unless they're sure everyone else is selling (and they will need to get out while they can).
Genz can't buy enough time to fix their manufacturing problems while surviving on their own at current size & make-up. It's a tragedy to many who are involved, but this is an exmple of what happens with a "one trick pony" when the star goes lame. A few months more and $69 / share will likely good very good to them when no one else shows interest.
1. Modeler on September 10, 2010 8:46 AM writes...
More interestingly, will Genzyme get tired of SA's heckling and itself solicit higher quotes from other big pharma companies?
Permalink to Comment2. watcer on September 10, 2010 12:36 PM writes...
It seems there's no incentive in the market-place for S-A with no competing offers. Genzyme has yet to show they can dig themselves out of their manfacturing problems, so their self-valuation must be considered on the optimistic, high side. With today's stock market and the general stagnation of drug stock prices, appeal to general stockholders of Genzyme seems to be a good wager for S-A's price proposal. My bet is that they will go for it.
Permalink to Comment3. Hap on September 10, 2010 12:47 PM writes...
If it were such a good deal, S-A wouldn't have to twist arms to get people to sell to them - the uncertainties in Genzyme are pretty well known, and given the state of the market, people might want to get their money while they can. I would figure, thus, that S-A is twisting arms because the current deal is good for them but not obviously good for stockholders. There may also be a lot of people in Genzyme for the long haul for whom a merger will likely do them no good at all (considering the past history of mergers in pharma) who may not want to sell unless they're sure everyone else is selling (and they will need to get out while they can).
Permalink to Comment4. Anon on September 10, 2010 1:10 PM writes...
".....pigs get slaughtered....."
Permalink to Comment5. anon2 on September 10, 2010 2:14 PM writes...
Not good news...
http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2010/09/genzyme_readies.html?p1=News_links
Permalink to Comment6. horrible on September 10, 2010 3:34 PM writes...
Layoffs at Genz today
Permalink to Comment7. Anon-2 on September 11, 2010 8:45 AM writes...
Genz can't buy enough time to fix their manufacturing problems while surviving on their own at current size & make-up. It's a tragedy to many who are involved, but this is an exmple of what happens with a "one trick pony" when the star goes lame. A few months more and $69 / share will likely good very good to them when no one else shows interest.
Permalink to Comment