Well, it takes all kinds to make a market. And the collapse in Medivation's shares after their disastrous Phase III results the other day seem to have brought out some hopeful buyers. Take this guy:
. . .I'm telling you right now, I believe that sell-off has gone twice as deep as good sense can justify. At least, that's the way I see it.
First off, we should understand that drug trials are Medivation's business. Clinical trials are what the company does. This failed phase 3 study isn't to be considered a crash into a brick wall. It's not a crippling lawsuit. It's not the loss of a major customer account. It's simply a sudden downshift, a temporary change of gears. In many ways, for Medivation, it's just one facet of business as usual.
As I look at Medivation's one-year and three-year performance charts, the opening to invest is just screaming at me. . .
All I can say is "Go for it, chief!" I might just add, very quietly, that early-stage drug discovery is not really the kind of business where one-year and three-year stock performance is much of a guide. And it's also worth remembering that although clinical trials are indeed what drug companies do, we try not to do big honking Phase III face-plants. You don't start clinical trials that you think are going to end that way, so a crash into a brick wall is actually not a bad analogy.
But hey - the dented hubcaps have just about finished wobbling around into the dust, and who knows, the stock might actually bounce back up a little bit, thanks to the brave and the foolhardy. But if Medivation is ever to make it back to where it was, I don't see how it's going to be because of Dimebon.
Via RJAlvarez on Twitter, who says "Tough call, but this is perhaps the worst post recommending a biotch stock I've ever read."