I'd like to take the time this morning to deal with two conspiracy theorists, and I'll take them in order of increasing foil-hat thickness. First up is Joe Collier, an emeritus professor who writes a blog for the British Medical Journal. He notes the recent study that suggested that cell phone emissions could have a beneficial effect in rodent models of Alzheimer's. I didn't give that any play on this blog - too many other things going on, and I don't find any rodent models of Alzheimer's particularly trustworthy to start with. But the study also showed (apparently beneficial) effects on normal rodents, and is certainly worth following up on.
But Collier takes this result and runs with it:
So what happens next? Faced with the prospect, albeit remote, of losing a lucrative market, I predict that the industry will want to quash the electromagnetic treatment theory as soon as possible. To this end, I would expect that the industry propaganda machine will go into overdrive in an attempt to undermine the credibility and findings of Arendash, and to overwhelm the decision makers (ultimately the funders) so that the use of drugs is maintained. The power of industry as an information generator and distributor is unmatched, and industry will use all its persuasive skills. . .
And so on, and so on. The problem (well, one problem) with this line of reasoning is that it could also be extended to other new drugs for Alzheimer's. If the industry wanted to keep selling the existing Alzheimer's drugs at all cost, why would we go to the trouble of trying to develop better ones? We are, you know - I have no idea how much money has vanished down that particular pipe, but it sure has been a lot, and I've helped flush some of it through myself. But we're not the monolithic "drug industry" over here. We're a bunch of companies climbing all over each other trying to make money, take each others' market share, and get to the clinic faster than the other guys down the road. That's what keeps things moving - everyone who's done industrial drug discovery has read a new press release or seen a new patent filing and heard the footsteps coming up from behind.
So I have a counterprediction for Collier. The South Florida study will, in fact, be followed up on. It's interesting enough. And if there's something to it, someone will find a way to optimize the effect and make money off it. And the drug industry will not mobilize to squash it, either - honestly, we have enough to do trying to get our own stuff to work. I haven't seen a single statement from a drug company about this study so far myself, and if Joe Collier has, I'd invite him to produce it.
Next! OK, now we move on to something that seems to be getting some more headlines in the past week or two, and that people have been e-mailing me about. One Wolfgang Wodarg, a German doctor and SPD politician, has been telling everyone that the handling of the H1N1 flu epidemic should be investigated because, he says, it's all a "fake pandemic" whipped up by the drug companies. (You can get all the Wodarg you need, and more, at his web site). Stories in the more excitable press make him sound like the head of all the health agencies of Europe, but people are confusing the Council of Europe (where Wodarg heads a subcommittee) with the EU, among other things they're mixing up.
The World Health Organization is now fielding questions about whether they oversold the epidemic, but it's a sure bet that (if it taken off more drastically) they'd be fielding even more about why they weren't prepared for it. At any rate, if you think that the Monolithic Drug Industry can simultaneously push around the WHO, the CDC, and the public health agencies of every other country in the world, I invite you to think again. If we could do all that, we'd at least be in good enough financial shape that we wouldn't be laying thousands of people off and doing ridiculous mergers out of desperation.
Wodarg, for his part, seems to have been sounding all kinds of alarms for a long time now. Back in the fall, he was telling everyone that the vaccine was going to give them cancer, for example. In case anyone's wondering, I treat his suggestions with the contempt that they appear to richly deserve.