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DBL%20Hendrix%20small.png College chemistry, 1983

Derek Lowe The 2002 Model

Dbl%20new%20portrait%20B%26W.png After 10 years of blogging. . .

Derek Lowe, an Arkansan by birth, got his BA from Hendrix College and his PhD in organic chemistry from Duke before spending time in Germany on a Humboldt Fellowship on his post-doc. He's worked for several major pharmaceutical companies since 1989 on drug discovery projects against schizophrenia, Alzheimer's, diabetes, osteoporosis and other diseases. To contact Derek email him directly: derekb.lowe@gmail.com Twitter: Dereklowe

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In the Pipeline: Don't miss Derek Lowe's excellent commentary on drug discovery and the pharma industry in general at In the Pipeline

In the Pipeline

« Pfizer: As We Speak? | Main | Prasugrel Today? »

September 26, 2008

Imclone's Secret Admirer

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Posted by Derek

So it seems that Bristol-Myers Squibb took my advice (yeah, sure) and made an insultingly incremental counteroffer for Imclone, raising their $60/share all the way to. . .$62. I was hoping for something more like $60.25 myself, but you can’t have everything. (I should send them a bill for consulting services and see how far that gets me).

Carl Icahn has replied in yet another public letter, saying that there must be more productive ways for BMS to enrich its lawyers. I notice that the folks at the Wall Street Journal’s Health Blog are getting tired of the extended correspondence between Icahn and BMS’s Jim Cornelius. Although I’m still enjoying the show, I can see where it will eventually pall.

Icahn claims that his mystery $70/share bidder is doing due diligence, which should be completed this weekend. You’d think that any due diligence worth the name would tell someone not to pay $70/share for Imclone while Erbitux is still tied up with Bristol-Myers Squibb and its successor’s status is still very much in doubt. Wouldn’t you? Just how long does it take to run those numbers, anyway? Especially in this financial market, with credit tightening and the investment banking community in chaos? Or is the whole thing just a load of. . .no, no, Carl Icahn wouldn’t stoop to tactics like that. And I am Marie of Rumania.

My prediction: 64% chance that the companies agree, with much face-saving theater, at a price of about $65 per share. 35% chance that the whole business falls apart for now, due to the uncertainly about IMC-11F8. And that leftover 1% chance is that there really is a $70/share bidder.

Comments (4) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: Business and Markets


COMMENTS

1. Michael on September 26, 2008 9:58 AM writes...

Here's my question, and this has bothered me since the supposed "secret admirer" came onto the scene with the $70-a-share bid. As ImClone is publicly traded, and because Icahn's comments about a hidden suitor most definitely affected share price, how could he be lying? Would he not be prosecutable as lying to shareholders if he'd made the whole thing up?

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2. Hap on September 26, 2008 12:38 PM writes...

I can see the love notes now....

"Mr. Icahn,

Roses are red,
Violets are blue,
$70 a share,
is "cuckoo,cuckoo,cuckoo".

Jim"

Permalink to Comment

3. Someone who cares on September 28, 2008 6:40 AM writes...

What Mystery Buyer Would Pay $70 Per Share for ImClone?

Lilly

Permalink to Comment

4. Pete on September 30, 2008 8:06 AM writes...

Perhaps it's Yahoo or Microsoft...

Apparently the identity is going to be unveiled at midnight on Wednesday, how exciting!!

(Is it just me or is Icahn one of the most unprofessional billionaires out there?)

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