I'd been predicting for years that RNA interference would be worth a Nobel, and this year the committee did what many expected them to do. But not many people expected them to do it this early - not even Craig Mello himself. And he's being modest in that quote about having an "inkling" that it "might be possible", but that's understandable. Congratulations to him and to Andrew Fire!

I notice that the committee didn't go back as far as the initial observations of the first observations in plants (or in nematodes). The explanation for all these results started with Fire and Mello, and that's where the committee started as well.

Update: Paul Bracher sets the odds for Wednesday's prize in chemistry. I might run some of the numbers a bit differently, but not terribly so, and it's a pretty comprehensive list of possibles.