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DBL%20Hendrix%20small.png College chemistry, 1983

Derek Lowe The 2002 Model

Dbl%20new%20portrait%20B%26W.png After 10 years of blogging. . .

Derek Lowe, an Arkansan by birth, got his BA from Hendrix College and his PhD in organic chemistry from Duke before spending time in Germany on a Humboldt Fellowship on his post-doc. He's worked for several major pharmaceutical companies since 1989 on drug discovery projects against schizophrenia, Alzheimer's, diabetes, osteoporosis and other diseases. To contact Derek email him directly: derekb.lowe@gmail.com Twitter: Dereklowe

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In the Pipeline: Don't miss Derek Lowe's excellent commentary on drug discovery and the pharma industry in general at In the Pipeline

In the Pipeline

« Those Darn Invisible Creatures | Main | Plavix Plot Twists »

September 1, 2006

Merck: Unfigure-outable

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Posted by Derek

So, how are things going with the Merck/Vioxx situation? Short answer: confusingly. Earlier this month, Merck's winning verdict from last November was thrown out, and the whole case will have to be retried next year. To balance that out a bit, this week one of the company's big losses had its $51 million dollar award overturned - the judge says that Merck is still liable, but that the award was "grossly excessive".

To add to the uncertainty, another Merck loss in RioGrande City, Texas is coming under scrutiny. Today's Wall Street Journal has a front-page article (subscription link) reporting that one of the jurors in that trial had a history of borrowing money (thousands of dollars worth) from the plaintiff, a fact that certainly didn't come out during the voir dire. Merck, needless to say, is looking into having this verdict thrown out as well.

All this makes it impossible to say just what's happening. The reversals (and coming re-reversals, for all I know) just make it even harder to grasp. Even without these backtracks, the whole business is moving on a slower-than-human-attention-span time scale, which is the problem with a lot of important issues. Watching grass grow and paint dry can actually be very useful, but we're not equipped to do it very well.

For the time being, anyway, the flood of damaging information and bad decisions coming from Merck's side seems to have receded, perhaps because there wasn't much left to accomplish in that line. Interestingly, if you were a Merck shareholder before the Vioxx disaster hit, you're still underwater - but if you bought afterwards, you've done extremely well. This seems to reflect (understandable) panic at first, followed by relief that the company was capable of winning a case or two and not immediately disappearing beneath the flood waters. But if we're going to try every case at least twice, I don't see the stock making much headway for a while.

Comments (3) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: Business and Markets | Cardiovascular Disease | Toxicology


COMMENTS

1. tom bartlett on September 5, 2006 8:12 AM writes...

I like to think that, at the end of the day, MRK will have successfully banished ALL these frivolous VIOXX suits. Even if you take the questionable position that the risk/benfit ratio was unacceptable for the drug, the key risk (mild edema) was known to the FDA PRE-approval.

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2. anom guy on September 5, 2006 8:11 PM writes...

Banishing the frivolous lawsuits by MRK makes sense. However, MRK knows that many non-frivolous cases do exist and they know payments will be due. MRK has been able to pick and choose the cases that have already went to trial. They have not really faired all that well.
How about the judges selecting the trail cases for awhile. This will give MRK a better chance to see where they really stand. Of course, MRK probably does not want thia to happen. MRK needs to step forward and settle the cases they do not want to tackle in court.

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3. tom bartlett on September 6, 2006 8:01 AM writes...

MRK would be better served by tackling the tougher cases up-front, because victory on those MIGHT discourage the bottom-feeding personal injury lawyers.

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