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August 16, 2002
Here It Goes
The research idea I've been alluding to recently gets a key test today. I've got two values for one of the variables (high and low, essentially) and four values for another. And I've thought up two control experiments for each of those eight cases, which narrows things down quite a bit: under this experimental protocol, good news would have a very good chance of actually being good news.
But bad news would have a pretty good chance of actually being bad news, too. I can think of more ways to see a false-negative than a false-positive, but I'm not sure how likely some of those really are. If nothing happens today, I've got some plans for a second run which would address some of those.
Of course, I'd rather not find myself in the familiar research position of looking out the window, wondering what went wrong. I'll know by later this afternoon. A colleague from another department is setting things up and will collect the data, and I won't be very far from my phone during that time, I can tell you. Waiting for this stuff is nerve-wracking - it feels like I've asked the physical world out on a date and I'm waiting to hear if it'll accept.
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